This post is brought to you by The Racing Line, your personalised motorsport calendar app. Get session times for over 150 series, from rally to bikes, single seaters to sportscars with customisable notifications and built-in streaming. Download on iOS today!
It's fair to say not many were expecting a Toyota front-row lock out in qualifying, even at Bahrain, a track they've historically done well at, with two successive front-row lock outs prior to this.
The Bahrain International Circuit is well known for being very harsh on its tyres. We saw today that cars would set a couple of flying laps, before the rubber was past its best and would fade.
Toyota made the most of the phase where the tyres were at their best, taking pole and following that up with second as well. Bravo.
Kobayashi, in the pole-sitting #7 Toyota, was, in fact, only fastest in the final sector of the lap, with a 00:33.472. This was marginally quicker than Malthe Jakobsen in the #94 Peugeot, but a tenth and a half quicker than Kobayashi's Toyota teammate Brendon Hartley, in the sister #8 machine.
Out of the other two sectors, Hartley was quickest in the second sector, with Kobayashi under a tenth behind. And, in the opening sector of the lap, up to turn 4, Jakobsen was quickest, with Kobayashi second just a few hundredths behind.
With the second sector dependent on aero and mechanical grip in its mix of slow and medium-speed corners – Bahrain has the slowest average speed of any FIA World Endurance Championship or European Le Mans Series circuit – grip is vital to be fast in the middle of the lap.
This, then, is largely where Toyota made the difference. Hartley was 0.232 faster than the #93 Peugeot of Jean-Eric Vergne in the second sector, with Kobayashi 0.173 faster.
Their main competition for pole was from Jakobsen in the #94 Peugeot, but he was much slower in this sector. He was only seventh fastest, 0.401 off Hartley.
Peugeot's ideal lap, comprised from Jakobsen's first and third sectors and Vergne's second sector, would not have been good enough for pole – a 1:47.00 dead, 0.033 slower than Kobayashi. It would have put them second, though, ahead of Hartley.
Toyota's ideal lap, meanwhile, made up from Kobayashi's first and third sectors and Hartley's middle sector, would have been 0.210 faster than Kobayashi's pole lap. If we flip this for Toyota's second ideal lap, it would have been a 1:47.036, which would have put Peugeot on the front row.
Can Toyota win?
Aha. The big question.
Our analysis from FP1 and FP2 found Toyota's pace was decent if not ultimately class-leading. The GR010 Hybrid is extraordinarily good on its tyres, a key trait at Bahrain where the sand-swept track surface causes high tyre degradation, combined with corners requiring heavy braking – turn 1 and turn 10 in particular, that tricky corner where the drivers have to brake while partially turning the car, always tricky – plus high track temperatures in the middle of the desert.
However, it seems Toyota did their homework over night. In FP3, the two Toyotas had the third and fourth-fastest long runs. Mike Conway's 11 lap stint in the #7 car, which will start on pole, was the second-longest stint of the top 10, pointing to the fact the GR010 Hybrid is good on its tyres.
'I am very happy to be on pole again,' said Kobayashi after the session.
'It’s the result of a great job and a big effort from the team. We have had a tough season so far, so I am very proud that we could turn it around and get a one-two today.
'Everyone pushed very hard for this but tomorrow is another day and we know it will not be easy. Our target is to win. We are well prepared, and it should be an exciting race.'
Toyota has not had a race win this year – the first time this has happened since 2015 – so a win, in this iteration of the GR010's final race – would be deeply satisfying to Toyota.
'We have really struggled this year,' said Kobayashi.
'This is our last race for this GR010. As you know, we update and next year we will have a different car next year, a different face, looking different.
'But we made a good pole here, I think through the week we have had a competitive car. We're pretty happy with the car. We just built everything for the race pace and qualifying scenario,' he concluded.
Phil Oakley
What happened to Aston Martin?
We at Only Endurance were so hyped up to see an Aston Martin pole. Or even a front row start. Or a second row start.
We didn't even get that, though. The best a Valkyrie will start tomorrow will be sixth, the #009 qualified in the hands of Marco Sorensen.
In the initial first part of the Hypercar qualifying session, the Valkyries were 1-2, with Ross Gunn in the #007 leading Sorensen in the sister car.
Gunn was fastest by 3 tenths in the final sector of his qualifying lap to go top of the pile, with a 33.174 compared to Sorensen's 33.479. The next quickest non-Valkyrie was the #94 Peugeot of Jakobsen, with a 33.647, 0.473 slower than Gunn.
The rest of the lap was somewhat middling for Gunn, though. He was fourth quickest in the second sector, 0.035 slower than Sorensen, but was 0.262 slower than first sector pacesetter Kobayashi, and 0.139 off Sorensen in the same sector.
So, Gunn's time came entirely in the third sector then, to form a 1:47.290. Aston Martin's ideal lap from that session, a 1:47.116, wouldn't have been good enough in Hyperpole.
But, it would have been much better than both Valkyries Hyperpole laps, a 1:47.624 for Sorensen and a 1:48.003 for Gunn.
So, what went wrong?
Well, according to Sorensen himself, he pushed too hard in Hyperpole.
Support Only Endurance's independent sportscar journalism today from £1/$1/€1 a month
'I think all in all it's a really good qualifying session,' said the Dane.
'We learned a lot again. It all comes down to how you actually hit the laps. Obviously you have one lap here. The first qualifying, I think we went out and we actually maybe underdrove a bit, which can be a good thing, and the time was easier there.
'And then for the Hyperpole you're like, OK, I'm going to make sure that we're going to get this Hyperpole done, and probably pushed it maybe a little bit too much.
'I did some different settings on the steering wheel. That I thought would be good for the pole and it didn't work out,' he finished.
Looking at the sector times, both cars were up in sector 1 compared to in qualifying – 0.030 for Sorensen, and 0.142 for Gunn.
The second sector, though, both dropped away. Gunn was 0.379 off compared to qualifying, while Sorensen was 0.083 slower.
Phil Oakley
Gunn could not reproduce his stunning third sector time from earlier, 0.476 slower. And Sorensen was 0.150 slower to end the lap.
Added up, then, Gunn was over 7 tenths slower, ending up ninth. Sorensen fared a little better, just 0.203 off his lap from qualifying, but the field had moved on for Hyperpole, leaving him only seventh at the session's close.
'I think tomorrow it's going to be a completely different thing, because compared to the practices we're nearly going 8-9 seconds quicker,' said Sorensen when asked for his thoughts on the upcoming race.
'The race is different setup, different everything on the car, and we have to manage the tyres to get through a stint, so that's going to be the difficult part,' concluded the 35-year-old.
Championship fight continues
And, to finish, just a quick look at the various championship challengers.
The top-placed drivers' championship challenger in Hyperpole was Alex Lynn in the #12 Cadillac, taking fifth. He put his gold, Hertz-sponsored, JOTA-run Cadillac ahead of Antonio Giovinazzi's #51 Ferrari, with Lynn faster by a couple of hundredths.
'So we start in P5 for the race tomorrow and I’m pleased with that,' said the Briton.
'We’ve had a run of pole positions this year so naturally you hope and you dream of another one, but I think honestly, I'm proud of that lap and proud of the session. The team has done a great job today and I think it was very close to the maximum of what we could do.'
The other two championship challengers did not fare as well. Robert Kubica could only manage 12th as he and his teammates, Phil Hanson and Yifei Ye, look to win Le Mans and the world championship in the same year.
Kevin Estre fared even worse, qualifying last in the #6 Porsche, leaving himself, Laurens Vanthoor and Matt Campbell with it all to do in the race.
The race begins at 2pm local time in Bahrain, 11am in the UK, and 6am on the east coast of the United States.
Download The Racing Line on iOS today and get 70% off a year's subscription!