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The tension in the paddock and at the track for this year's 24 Hours of Le Mans is palpable.
For the previous couple of years, the competition has been fierce and we've had two fantastic editions of the French endurance classic. But this year it feels, if it's possible, that we could be in for an even better, closer race.
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Looking at the long run pace from the four practice sessions backs this up. Six manufacturers could realistically be in contention for the win — unfortunately Peugeot and Aston Martin are left out in the cold. But more on them later.
Le Mans can often be a race of parts, with the daytime and cooler night time often offering completely different pictures in terms of pace and speed from various teams. So, let's look at the daytime practice sessions first, then the night sessions.
Extremely close in the heat of the day
The long run pace from the two daytime practice sessions, FP1 and FP3, was very close.
As usual we've separated this out into two metrics: a team (or manufacturer's, in the graph below) fastest long run, and then the average long run pace for multi-car teams (the vast majority).
The factory Porsche team presented the fastest long run pace in these two sessions. The resulting average lap time was a 03:29.088, set by Michael Christensen in the #5 machine over a series of seven laps.
The Wayne Taylor Racing Cadillac appears to not be far behind, but this isn't a realistic portrayal. The run was just three laps long in FP3, from Jordan Taylor. That said, brother Ricky was able to set a longer run that was only a couple of tenths slower on average in FP1, so there is hope yet for the American team.
BMW's Dries Vanthoor, in the #15 car, wasn't far back either, also in FP1. Toyota were close too, with a nine lap stint from Seb Buemi.
The surprise to many will be how far back Ferrari are, but this cannot be taken as representative. Maybe the sandbags will be released come the race?
The two JOTA-run Cadillacs too have pace. Alex Lynn, in the #12 car qualified on pole with his teammate Earl Bamber second on the grid. While they aren't miles off at all in the long run pace here, they'll likely find pace in the race.
And, a word on Alpine. They have been maybe a step behind those seen to be at the front of the pack – the usual names — but not so much so that they may struggle in the race. Fred Makowiecki's 9-lap was respectable and, starting from ninth, they could be a force in the race.
The manufacturer chart above affirms the same line of thinking, with six manufacturers realistically in the hunt. Even Peugeot aren't too far off Alpine, judging from practice — but we all know that each team surely hasn't shown its true potential yet.
Unknowns in the night
Going into the darkness and the FP2 and FP4 sessions, run at night, and the picture changes considerably.
However, with shorter sessions at night, the long runs were shorter and more condensed, making it harder to truly judge.
Porsche once again appear to have decent long run pace, sitting second. However, ahead of them is the satellite #83 AF Corse Ferrari. Robert Kubica did a six lap stint in the hour-long FP4 session to look quickest on average, but this is hardly a long stint in the grand scheme of things.
The longest stint from either of these sessions was a 19 lap stint from polesitter Alex Lynn. He set a 03:30.685 over those 19 laps — slower than some other cars, but crucially longer.
Aston Martin are a surprise outlier here. Can they really be fast in the night and knocking on the door of the top 4 or 5 in pace terms, if not in position? We'll have to see.
Alpine and Toyota are behind both Peugeot and Aston Martin here, which again may not be representative. It is, in truth, very hard to know at this stage, with only three hours of practice run at night compared to double that in the daytime.
What does all this mean?
That's the big question.
In all honesty, anyone from the six manufacturers — Porsche, Ferrari, Toyota, Cadillac, Alpine and BMW — could win this. It's that close. Porsche have strong top speed, topping the speed traps all week, while Cadillac are immense in the fast, high speed corners, Porsche Curves in particular.
Peugeot are lacking top speed in particular and seem to be lacking everywhere really, but they're a team which could spring a surprise, even if a win is unlikely. Aston Martin too could be a dark horse team who come from nowhere.
But we'll only really find out in the race. That's when the facts are laid bare and everyone shows what they've got. We can't wait!
Feature image: DPPI / WEC
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