ANALYSIS: Porsche up front in the long run pace at Spa

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After free practice 1 and 2 at Spa, it's interesting to note that the balance of performance adjustments made ahead of this race seem to have worked.

Unlike at Lusail and Imola, Ferrari no longer have by far the quickest car. They're still right in the mix at the sharp end, but they're joined by others too.

In FP1, the #36 Alpine set the quickest long run. Fred Makowiecki did a 10-lap stint to set a 02:05.545 average lap time across those laps, just over three tenths faster than Jean-Eric Vergne in the #93 Peugeot.

Vergne did do a longer stint, at 16 laps, so it's possible so tyre degradation, always a factor and concern at Spa, came into play.

The usual caveats do apply here though. We don't know what tyre compound each car was using — unlike in other categories the data does not supply this info — and we don't know what fuel load each car was running.

In FP1 the two Ferraris were, in fact, quite a way down the field. The two ran two consistent long runs, with Nicklas Nielsen doing an 18 lap stint in the slightly faster, on average, #50, while Alessandro Pier Guidi did a shorter stint, just seven laps. At that length, it's possible this lap was a qualifying simulation, although the stint didn't have a standout lap that would pin it as so.

The #009 Aston Martin Valkyrie was also right in the mix, which will please the British manufacturer as it continues to learn and extract pace from the new car.

Toyota, Porsche and BMW were also in that upper-midfield section as the teams conducted their practice programmes. Cadillac seem to be a bit behind.

This trend, with Cadillac towards the back, continued in FP2, unfortunately for the American manufacturer, British-run team. Will Stevens, in the #12 car, and Sebastien Bourdais in the #38, did the car's longest stints.

However, with FP2 disrupted by three red flags and other multiple full course yellows, it's hard to read too much into the long run pace from this session.

The longest interrupted run was Kevin Magnussen in the #15 BMW, at nine laps, but even that was punctuated by an FCY. We've removed laps completed under FCY from the averages to try and paint a better picture of the pace, but even then it's tricky to draw any proper conclusions.

But, looking at the pace, the #5 Porsche was quickest on average, new boy Nico Müller setting a 02:04.954 over a six lap stint. Second fastest was Nielsen in the #50 Ferrari, 0.367 off, with Magnussen close behind.

The midfield in FP2 was very tight — 11 cars within a second, from the #20 BMW to the #007 Aston Martin.

When we take each manufacturer's best run, across both sessions, Porsche emerge as the quickest, with that stint from Müller top. Ferrari, BMW, and Alpine are close behind, with the latter just over half a second back, on average from Porsche.

Once again, Cadillac seem to be towards the back. Sandbagging, or genuine pace? It's very hard to say. Toyota, too, may be struggling with losing power and gaining weight in the balance of performance, but it's hard to truly say.

We've also averaged out the lap times from the both cars in each session, just to give a potentially different window. When looked at from this angle, it's Alpine in the pound seat, followed by Porsche, BMW and Peugeot.

Favourites Ferrari are a bit behind in this metric, only fifth. But, with FP2 so disrupted and some of the 'long runs' not really 'long' at all, we maybe can't get a complete picture. That will only really emerge in the race.

Who do you think will win at Spa? Will Ferrari continue the trend of winning every race in 2025, or will Porsche step up? Or will a manufacturer who has not won in this era of Hypercar take the victory? Let us know your thoughts on social media — @onlyendurance on all platforms.

Feature image: DPPI / WEC